Glossary

Arrival Bias

Related topics: Arrival Fallacy

Arrival bias is the assumption that life will automatically work better once you reach a new milestone—such as a better job, higher income, a new environment or a major life change.

The bias lies in overestimating what the new situation will solve on its own.
It confuses situational change with structural change. A new context can help, but it also brings new demands, tradeoffs and constraints. If your underlying habits, systems and patterns stay the same, many of the old problems tend to reappear in a different form.

Recognizing arrival bias does not mean goals or life changes do not matter.
It means their value depends partly on what you build around them. A promotion, move or fresh start helps most when it is paired with deliberate changes in how you work, live and make decisions.